China’s Cobalt Refining Dominance Remains a Challenge for the DRC

China’s Cobalt Refining Dominance Highlights DRC’s Downstream Processing Challenge

The recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has highlighted the strategic importance of mineral processing, with China continuing to dominate the global refining of cobalt despite growing efforts to diversify critical mineral supply chains.

Trump and Xi met in Washington from September 23 to 25, 2026, with discussions covering a range of economic and trade issues.

The summit extended the suspension of Chinese export controls on rare earths until January 10, 2027, but no documented agreement was reached on critical minerals such as cobalt or copper.

For the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the issue is particularly significant because the country accounts for more than 70% of global mined cobalt production, while much of the mineral’s downstream processing remains concentrated outside the country.

According to the International Energy Agency, China accounted for 78% of global cobalt refining in 2024.

This gives China significant influence over the downstream stages of the cobalt supply chain, even though the DRC remains the world’s dominant source of mined cobalt.

The DRC has introduced measures to manage cobalt supply and increase its leverage in the global market.

The country has capped cobalt exports at 96,600 tonnes annually for 2026 and 2027, including a 9,600-tonne strategic reserve.

The export ceiling applies to cobalt contained in hydroxides, an intermediate product that requires further refining.

However, the DRC did not have an operating cobalt refining facility as of autumn 2025, according to Fastmarkets.

This highlights a key challenge for the country: while the DRC controls a substantial share of global cobalt production, much of the value generated further along the supply chain is captured elsewhere.

The issue also comes amid efforts by the US and other Western economies to reduce their dependence on China for critical minerals and develop alternative supply chains.

The DRC has increasingly sought to strengthen its relationships with Western markets. In the first half of 2026, the share of Congolese copper sales going to the United States and Europe doubled compared with 2025, according to figures from the Cellule Technique de Coordination et de Planification Minière (CTCPM).

However, China remains by far the DRC’s largest trading partner. In 2024, trade between the two countries was valued at approximately US$28 billion, compared with about US$1.6 billion in trade between the DRC and the United States.

The figures underline the scale of the challenge facing the DRC as it seeks to play a greater role in the downstream processing of its critical minerals.

With the next key deadline for China’s rare earth export controls set for January 10, 2027, developments in global mineral supply chains are likely to remain closely watched by the DRC and other major mineral-producing countries.

For the DRC, the longer-term opportunity will depend not only on maintaining its position as a leading cobalt producer, but also on developing domestic processing capacity and capturing more value before its minerals reach international markets.